What makes a scenario conditional?
A conditional scenario names the evidence that would support an interpretation and the evidence that would weaken it. It does not claim that one outcome is certain or that a price target is guaranteed.
Frame both sides fairly
A bullish case might depend on a level holding and structure continuing. A bearish case might depend on a failed reclaim or a break of a meaningful zone. The chart should determine the conditions, not a desired outcome.
Use observable language
Prefer “if price holds this zone, watch whether the next swing makes a higher high” over “price will go up.” The first statement can be checked against the chart; the second pretends to know the future.
Review the assumptions
- What timeframe does the scenario belong to?
- Which visible level or structure supports it?
- What would invalidate it?
- What information is missing from the chart?